In the bustling Mile 12 market in Lagos, Mama Ngozi stares at a basket of tomatoes that cost twice what they did six months ago. The 52-year-old mother of four has already stopped buying rice for her family. Now she is considering whether beans must also disappear from their plates.

"My husband earns the same salary," she says, wiping her hands on her faded wrapper. "But the money disappears faster than water in sand."

Mama Ngozi's experience is not unique. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria's inflation rate reached 28.92% in November 2025, marking 18 consecutive months of double-digit price increases. Food inflation has been even more brutal, consistently outpacing headline figures as supply chain disruptions, currency depreciation, and security challenges in food-producing regions compound.

The Central Bank's Dilemma

At the Central Bank of Nigeria headquarters in Abuja, policymakers face an impossible balancing act. In November 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee voted to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 27%—one of the highest in the world—arguing that aggressive tightening remains necessary to anchor inflation expectations and stabilize the naira.

"Price stability is our primary mandate," CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso stated at the post-MPC briefing. "We understand the pain these high rates cause for borrowers, but the alternative—runaway inflation—would be catastrophic for the most vulnerable Nigerians."

Yet critics argue the CBN's medicine may be worse than the disease. With lending rates now hovering between 35-40%, businesses have all but stopped borrowing to expand. Manufacturing capacity utilization has fallen to 48%, its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria.

The Human Cost

Behind the statistics are millions of stories like that of Emmanuel, a 34-year-old Uber driver in Abuja whose fuel costs have tripled since January 2025. "I work 14 hours now instead of 10," he says, waiting for a passenger outside the Transcorp Hilton. "But I bring home less money. The car consumes everything."

The World Bank's Nigeria Economic Update paints a grim picture: an estimated 40% of Nigerians—over 80 million people—live below the national poverty line, up from 35% just two years ago. The bank warns that without decisive policy action, another 15 million Nigerians could slide into poverty by 2027.

Glimmers of Hope?

Not all the economic news is bleak. Crude oil production has stabilized at 1.6 million barrels per day, up from lows of 1.1 million in early 2024. The non-oil sector, driven by services and agriculture, continues to expand, albeit at a slower pace.

For Mama Ngozi in Mile 12 market, however, these macroeconomic indicators mean little. What matters is whether tomorrow's tomatoes will cost more than today's. As she carefully counts out crumpled naira notes for a small bag of peppers, her expression says what millions of Nigerians are thinking: how much longer can this go on?